Rowland's Office

The J.D. Drew of the mound, or an ace-in-waiting?

Tough to tell with A.J. Burnett, who can opt out of his contract and appears likely to do so. Buster Olney says the Braves are quite interested:

Heard this: The Atlanta Braves have been scouting Burnett very closely, and they are said to have tens of millions of dollars at their disposal to spend on pitching, and will bid on Burnett, Derek Lowe or others.

Burnett won 18 this year and struck out 231 in 221 innings. That last number is most impressive, but it's not the first time he's surpassed 200 IP. He's done it twice before, though he's also missed significant time over the years with injuries. In the two years prior to this one, Burnett combined to pitch 300 innings.

He'll be 31 when the season starts, and among the free agent hurlers only Sabathia ranks higher as far as stuff. Burnett may be a late bloomer, he may be an perennial underachiever. A tough call, and an expensive one. 

What do you think? I'm tempted.

--CB

 

Is Hank divorcing the Braves?

When I first read Terence Moore's column about the apparent rift between Hank and Bobby, my instincts as a homer kicked in. I'd prefer to never read anything negative about the Braves.   

But eventually my reporting instincts took over, and it's impossible to deny the newsworthiness of a (one-sided) feud between two of the team's icons. None is greater than #44, of course, but I don't see what he's pissed about here:

Said Aaron, with a sigh, “I told Bobby. I told them all, and I told them, ‘Y’all better go and get Chipper Jones.’ “ 

That was opposed to pitcher Todd Van Poppel, Cox’s first choice, according to Aaron. “I talked to Van Poppel’s daddy, and he told me that he wasn’t going to sign with the Braves, but that’s who Bobby wanted with that first pick, because he always was into getting pitching.” 

Cox looked perplexed when informed of Aaron’s remarks, saying, “Well, we had a lot of people see [Van Poppel], and they liked him. Some other [Braves scouts] went to see Chipper, and they liked him a lot. I can’t remember if I had Hank talk to Van Poppel’s father or not, but [Van Poppel] was unsignable. And we needed to know that beforehand. So that’s why it really was an easy decision to take Chipper. He wanted to sign. He wasn’t playing games with the college thing. It was simple. I mean, Chipper was the guy.”

Is Aaron saying he wanted Chipper regardless of Van Poppel's signability? It's unclear, and if so he wasn't the only one, according to Bill Shanks (who provides some valuable context).

As the Braves continued to scout both players, they backed off from talking to them directly. They were pretty sure Jones would sign and that Van Poppel was still a question mark. 

So they concentrated on taking their time and making sure their evaluations were complete. The more people scouted Jones, the more they became enamored with his talent and his potential. 

“For me, I just thought it was General Lee up there sitting in a gray uniform on a horse leading the troops,” says Dean Jongewaard, a Braves crosschecker. “He was a leader. You really get happy when you see that. There’s not even one in every draft. You can go two or three drafts and never see that kind of ability. Like a Ken Griffey or Alex Rodriguez, you can go years without seeing that type of player come along.” 

A few days before the draft, the Braves decided to take a vote. Which player should they take with the first pick? Van Poppel or Jones? ”We had nine different reports from nine different people that had seen both of those guys," Snyder says. "The vote was 5-4 Chipper."

Van Poppel was considered by many to be the next Roger Clemens. All things being equal -- that is, if the Texas pitching phenom had been willing to sign with the Braves -- one assumes the hierarchy would've drafted Van Poppel. That would've been understandable. A huge mistake fans would've never forgiven them for, but understandable. Van Poppel was the consensus top pick. 

One wonders why Hank's even bringing this up 18 years later, but it's clear he's feels taken for granted. And did you know he serves on the board of one of the bidders trying to purchase the Cubs? 

I can't even stomach the thought of Hank in a Cubs hat. However, after talking to some people who would know, the Hammer is letting bitterness cloud his judgement, and his resentment appears woefully misdirected. 

He's wanting credit where it isn't due. I don't see why the Braves should be expected to give it to him, at least not in regard to the drafting of Chipper. Todd Van Poppel deserves more credit for that than Aaron does.

--CB

Earth to Bobby

From DOB's blog:

As for Kelly, with his torrid late-season push, including his current 21-game hitting streak, he’s certainly building a strong case for being retained as the starting second baseman. I get a sense, from talking to more than one team official, that the team is pleased with Kelly, just want him to be more consistent. 

The defense, many of us have noted, can get ugly form time to time. But when I asked Bobby Cox about it yesterday, the manager looked at me like I was crazy. “Kelly’s great,” Cox said. “He was great last year.”

No, he was -- and remains -- below average. It's hard to judge a second basemen by statistics -- Kelly's are mediocre. He's tied for second-to-last in errors at his position (13) and his .981 fielding percentage ranks in the middle. I'm more bothered by the timing of his miscues. They tend to come at pivotal moments, as you may have noticed. Apparently Bobby hasn't. 

Granted, KJ has opened our eyes with his torrid run at the plate -- enough so that I would be comfortable with him as our LF next year. We need one, and moving Kelly would open up a spot for Martin Prado. 

He's much better with the glove, and only Chipper and McCann have a higher OPS. Project MP's '08 numbers over a full season you're talking roughly 50 doubles, 10 triples and 80 RBI. I don't want that potential sitting on the bench anymore than I want to see KJ back at second. 

 --CB

Braves in 09?

As this dismal season wheezes to the end, we here at ye olde Office thought it would be an appropriate time to examine the chances of each current Bravo returning to start next season with the club. That, and there's not a whole hell of a lot to type about just now. 

However .... why didn't the umps review McCann's near homer? I suspect they are resisting using video replay. But what do I know? I know Clint Sammons needs to learn to block the plate. And I know it was good to see JJ throw well.

On with the predictions:

Pitchers

Manny Acosta -- 80% he's back. Looks to have upside if he stays healthy.

Jeff Bennett -- 85%. He's been a pretty useful arm, all things considered. He's back unless the bullpen is seriously upgraded, and that seems unlikely.

Blaine Boyer -- 55%. Awful in the second half, Boyer was OK before Bobby ran him out there 164 times. His fate probably depends on who else comes back and whom the Braves acquire in the offseason.

Jorge Campillo -- 90%. Very solid season. Appears a near lock to return as a fifth starter/long man.

Buddy Carlyle -- 30%. I can't see it. If he is back, it's probably a bad sign.

Elmer Dessens -- .1%. (That's point 1) Please, God. No.

Mike Gonzalez -- 99%. He's back.

Mike Hampton -- 15%. Who knows? Maybe we sign him to an incentive-laden deal. I doubt it.

Jorge Julio -- 25%. He's been OK, but similar to Carlyle's case, I hope we can do a bit better.

Jair Jurrjens -- 100%. Outstanding. Could enter 09 as the No. 1 starter, though we hope the club adds a quality veteran free agent.

Charlie Morton -- 70%. Mixed bag. He's either here or in Gwinnett to start '09, depending on whether Wren adds a starter or starters. I'm guessing Charlie makes strides in the spring and opens up with the big boys.

Vladimir Nunez -- 5%. Late season roster filler.

Will Ohman -- 50%. Re-signing the classy lefty wouldn't be a bad idea, but only if the price is right. Given recent history, it might not be.

James Parr -- 60%. He's been OK but steadily less impressive in each game. Again, his status probably depends largely on what the club does this offseason.

Jo-Jo Reyes -- 45%. Something tells me Jo-Jo is nearing the end of his rope in Atlanta.

Jeff Ridgway -- 20%. Why bother?

Julian Tavarez -- 10%. He's been OK, but doesn't offer much for the future.

Tom Glavine -- 60%. If he's healthy, I imagine he'll be back for one more go.

John Smoltz -- 65%. Same as Glavine. 

Tim Hudson -- 90% he's back late in the season.

Peter Moylan -- 95%. If he's healthy, he's back but maybe not by opening day.

Sorearmo -- 80%. Same.

Catchers

Brian McCann -- 100%. Star is here for a long time. MIght ought to eventually move to first base.

Corky Miller -- 5%. I hope to hell he's not back.

Clint Sammons -- 50%. No great shakes either, but I guess he'll do if we have to have a .200-hitting backup catcher. I'm guessing they sign somebody.

Infielders

Yesco -- 100%. I think his shoulder bothered him a good deal of this year. I look for a big '09.

Ruben Gotay -- 3%. Nice knowing you, Ruben.

Omar Infante -- 90%. Only way he's not back is if he's part of a trade.

Kelly Johnson -- 95%. See Infante.

Chipper Jones -- 98%. See Infante, KJ. And I don't see this trade happening.

Casey Kotchman -- 85%. Not impossible he could be dealt, but I doubt it.

Brent Lillibridge -- 10%. He can't hit big league pitching.

Martin Prado -- 95%. He'd better be back.

Outfielders

Josh Anderson -- 45%. Appears to be a four-A type.

Gregor Blanco -- 65%. Not a whole lot better, but has more of a foothold.

Matt Diaz -- 15%. I don't see the club re-signing him.

Jeff Francoeur -- 75%. I don't think they move him.

Brandon Jones -- 65%. Jury's out. His fate, and Anderson's, might depend on whether Wren imports talent.

Greg Norton -- 70%. I'd like to see him back as a pinch hitter.

So, I think we could seem some turnover in the outfield and on the pitching staff. What y'all think?

--CD

Hats off, Bravos fans

This season has been a turd sandwich, but there's no better way to end the home slate than a couple of wins over the contending Mets, before sellout throngs, no less.

In fact, we salute the much maligned -- do you ever see that expression anywhere outside sports pages? I don't. -- Atlanta fans for sticking with the club through the final bites of said turd sandwich. I did a little ciphering, and in 29 home dates since the trade of Tes$howmethemoney the Bravos have averaged 31,024 rooters per. That's essentially the same as the season average of 31,270, which is 10th among the 16 NL teams. 

Among what I'll call the NL's "bad" teams, we outdrew them all except San Francisco. And we drew more fans than the D'backs, who aren't that good but have been in contention all season. 

For the curious, the post-Te$howmethemoney record is 20-31. 

--CD